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Describe your job for us. My grandfather would say that I'm a professional liar and training for a future in politics. All kidding aside, I am a meteorologist who works as a General Forecaster for the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Missoula, Montana. I am responsible for forecasts, watches, warnings and advisories for western Montana and north-central Idaho. I work a 24/7 rotating shift schedule with six other General Forecasters and 5 Lead Forecasters. Each day we issue two standard forecast packages which cover seven days into the future while maintaining a constant weather watch where we may issue a variety of updates to the forecast, watches, warnings or advisories. I am constantly training, learning about the latest technology or scientific discoveries within the realm of meteorology. We also conduct frequent tours of our facility for schools, civic organizations as well as the average Joe from off the street. How long have you been interested in the weather? My passion for weather began on Christmas of 1989. I was eight years old and under the tree was a present from my grandparents who live in northern Minnesota. Like most children, I eagerly ripped it open and to my amazement, discovered a Bushnell Sky Watchers Kit. I didn't realize it at the time, but this gift would be life-changing. Within a matter of days, I had the included weather station (thermometer, rain gauge and wind speed indicator) set up on a 2x4 in my backyard and was tracking the weather on the observation chart included. I learned to draw weather maps and pored through the beginner's sky watching book. By mid- January, I created my first accurate forecast. I told my grandparents (who were visiting from New England) that it would rain before the sun came up the next day. Well, what did you know, I was correct and a lifelong love of weather was born. What interests you most about your job? Ironically, I suppose it's the seemingly randomness of nature and the eternal pursuit of predicting something that is always changing. No matter how many times you think you've seen a weather pattern, something about it is always different. I also enjoy the responsibility that my job brings. I take great pride in knowing that I am protecting the lives and property of the American public through the issuance of watches, warnings, advisories as well as forecasts. How difficult is it to build a forecast? How many different things are involved? Building a weather forecast is incredible complex and probably the most challenging thing I have ever accomplished. The number of variables involved seems, at times, infinite and can often be overwhelming. We take into account both physically-observed data (surface weather stations), in situ data (remote sensing such as satellites and radar) and computer model data. Finally, we also receive various reports from weather spotters, media sources, emergency managers, department of transportation, public officials, and many more. Why do you think the weather inspires people? Because no matter who you are, where you travel, or what you may be doing, weather can have a significant impact on your life. As a religious person, the changing weather reminds me of the power and awesomeness God possesses. It is also constant reminder of the beauty which surrounds us in this world. In your opinion, could meteorology be considered an art form? By far and away, yes! I remember Dr. Randy Cerveny, my synoptic meteorology professor once stating that the study or practice of meteorology and weather forecasting are as much a form of art as it is a science. I've carried this philosophy with me from my early years of undergraduate work at Arizona State University. I discovered the simplest art form of drawing weather charts and mapping the weather. However, it was not until I became employed within the NWS that I discovered how much art is truly involved in my daily job. Much like a traditional artist (painters, musicians), a meteorologist takes the skills (education, experience) and tools (observed, in situ, and computer modeled data) at their disposal to create an idea or image of what they anticipate will happen in the future. This is the same creative process that all artists must use to create their masterpieces. In your opinion, do meteorologists just look at the weather analytically, or can they ever step back and admire what is going on? In other words, do you still have a sense of wonder about the weather, or has that been lost? Most meteorologists you will meet are still very much what I would call "weather geeks." For most of us, severe and hazardous weather still gets our blood pumping and our adrenaline surging. It's not just the sheer fact that we are responsible for alerting the American public of impending weather hazards, but that weather remains a love and passion for us outside our profession. I actually consider my love of meteorology and the skill of forecasting I have developed a gift from God. Even something simple as a beautiful sunrise or sunset still has us gazing to the sky in awe and wonder. Meteorologists will try and separate themselves from the forecast process and constant weather watch in order to secure a healthy and productive private life. But oftentimes we fail -- especially when your friends and family know our profession and constantly ask you questions about what it will be like tomorrow. A writer once said that "Weather is the one science where something is always going on." For you, that sets meteorology apart from other disciplines and sciences? That is a very accurate assessment of how meteorology is set apart from many forms of science. Unlike chemistry or physics, we have no apparent control over the weather. Research meteorologists try to simulate weather patterns, but can only resort to using supercomputers which must take many assumptions into account to produce static results. Furthermore, the random and complex nature of weather makes field experiments very difficult and challenging since repeatable conditions are impossible to anticipate with full certainty. Do you have a creative process as a meteorologist? For example, when forecasting, how do you approach your work? The forecast or creative process often varies depending upon which shift I am working. However, I actually begin working not long after I wake up. While getting ready for my day, I will read the previous shifts forecast discussion and take a quick glance at the radar and forecast for Missoula. As I drive into work, I'll observe the clouds and colors if I'm fortunate enough to view the sunrise or sunset. Once I arrive at the office, I receive a shift briefing and then assume forecast responsibilities for the next eight or so hours. We have a very advanced computer system called Display in Two Dimensions (D2D) where we can view satellite, radar, computer model and physically-observed weather data on many different map scales. I begin by looking at the synoptic (big) picture. This will be on the hemispheric, continental, or country scale. I assess the major weather systems and fronts at play in the United States, but specifically looking to the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rocky Mountain Region, so I have an understanding of what might impact my forecast area. After I feel confident in the overall pattern, I will begin my search into the finer details of what I need to cover in my forecast. The trick to utilizing computer data is not necessarily in understanding what the model is forecasting, but what it might not be forecasting. (In other words, I basically assume that the models are lying to me.) I recently experienced a clear example of this philosophy early during the morning of February 6th. All model data suggested that precipitation should not begin until after sunrise and that it would be entirely in the form of snow. However, not long after midnight, the automated weather station at the Kalispell Airport began to indicate freezing rain. This went against all forecast guidance I had at my disposal and initially I assumed sensor error or at most, very light precipitation (mist) which often times can confuse the sensor. After confirming the existence of freezing rain, I began to investigate the situation further. The 5 p.m. weather balloon launched from Spokane, WA showed a fairly deep warm layer which had developed above the surface. None of the model data had this layer. But if I changed the model forecast sounding to represent actual conditions, freezing rain could be possible. This, in essence, was the lie the model data was telling me: that it was cooler aloft than reality proved true. Ultimately I issued a Freezing Rain Advisory through 9 a.m. that morning. Observations showed freezing rain through 8 a.m. with all schools being closed for the day due to hazardous driving conditions throughout the area. Technologically speaking, where is meteorology headed? Meteorology, like all avenues of scientific pursuit, will benefit from advancements in technology. Researchers are developing tools that will help meteorologists better understand and hopefully forecast the weather. For example, advanced radar technology beyond what is currently being used already exists. Current radar sends high frequency waves of energy oscillating in one polar direction and when it encounters an object, returns a portion of that energy to the radar in two dimensions. Computer algorithms take this data and produce 3-D imagery. With dual polarization, the radar will fire two beams oscillating perpendicular to one another. When the beams encounter an object, a portion of the reflectivity will return to the radar in both the vertical and horizontal producing an amazingly accurate 3-D picture of each atmospheric particulate in the beams' path. Researchers have shown that dual polarization will allow forecasters to determine such things as the size of hail stones, the ability to differentiate between rain, freezing rain or snow and even identify such oddities as debris spun up from tornadoes. All this can be established with striking accuracy before ground confirmation is often received. Further advancements in computer modeling are allowing some of the highest-resolution computer models ever. Higher resolution data is especially helpful during the summer fire season in western Montana where accurate forecasts of wind speed and direction can mean the difference between life and death of wildland firefighters. Some people have even speculated and boldly stated that someday weather forecasting will be completely done by computers. I don't believe this could ever happen given how important weather is to both public safety and commerce in our country. The addition of advancing computer technology will undoubtedly occur, but there will always be a need for an artist (meteorologist) to take this technology and paint the weather picture. view the anatomy of a forecast |